More than half of Yemenis haven’t heard about federalism, according to a public opinion survey, conducted by the PERCENT Corporation with a total sample of 1064 respondents in nine governates. According to the survey, 56% of Yemenis, the majority of whom are from northern governates, haven’t heard about federalism or self-governed regions, compared to nearly 44.3% who said they have heard about federalism. Men are more knowledgeable about federalism than women, as more than 60% of men said they have heard about federalism, compared to just 28% of women.
Hearing About Federalism
When comparing the results over northern and southern governates, the percentage of those who said they had heard about federalism in the southern governates covered by the study (Aden, Dhalea and Hadramout) is 38% higher than the northern governates (Sana’a, Taiz, Hodeida, Ibb, Amran and Hajjah). According to the survey, some 76.6% of people in the southern governates have heard about federalism, compared to 38% in the northern governates.
Structure of the State:
The following question about the structure of the state was asked to those (44.3% of Yemenis] who said they heard or know about federalism: “What, in your opinion, is the favorable structure of the State? Do you prefer a federal state of multiple self-governed regions or a simple [unitary] state (without self-governed regions)? If you don’t know the difference between the two, say that.
As per the findings, 38.2% of Yemenis, who have heard about federalism, favor a federal system while 39.7% favor the current structure. And, more than 7% of those who have heard about federalism said they don’t know the difference between federalism and other governing structure , nearly 9% don’t know which structure is the most appropriate for Yemen, and nearly 6% refused to answer. There have been no differences between men’s and women’s answers.
Supporters of federalism are higher in the southern governotes than in the northern governates by nearly 13% in the total results, as more than 47% in the southern governorates said they were in favor a federal state, compared to 34.7% in the northern governates. And, 49.7% of people in the northern governates favor the unitary state, compared to just 13.7 in the southern governates. A significant portion of people in the southern governates (15.3%) either don’t know what the most appropriate option is or they (17.6%) don’t want to answer the question.
The detailed results by governate revealed that preferences for federalism are higher than preferences for the unitary state in northern governates, too, like the capital of Sana’a and the city of Hodeida. However, contradictory results surfaced in southern governates like Dhalea where people voting for a unitary state are more than those who selected a federal structure for the state.
All those who have heard about federalism in the Amran governate selected the current structure of the state when asked about which structure of state they prefer, followed by the Ibb Governate with more than 78%. Nearly half of Taiz residents prefer the simple structure [unitary state], compared to 38% who prefer a federal state. The results in Dhalea were relatively similar to those of Taiz.
In the Hajjah governate, nearly 46% selected federalism and 44% selected the simple structure of the state [Unitary State]. Of those who have heard about a federalism in the northern governate of Hodeida, 38% favored a federal system, compared to 31% who favored a unitary state. Nearly half the population that have heard about federalism in the capital city of Sana’a favor a federal system, compared to nearly 25% who selected the unitary state; and nearly one-fourth of the population who said they don’t know which option would be better.
Of those who have heard about federalism in the Hadramout governate, 42% favor a federal system, compared to only 3.8% who favor the current unitary structure, and more than 42% said they don’t know which option would work best for Yemen. In the Aden governate where more than 92% of the population said they heard about federalism, only 60% of them favor a federal structure for the State of Yemen; 30% refused to answer and 8.5% said they don’t know what the most appropriate system for Yemen is, compared to only 2.1% who voted for a unitary state.
The level of education had an impact on the responses of informants, mainly on who had heard about federalism, who said they don’t know the difference between the unitary state and the federal state, or who don’t know which system of governance would be the best for Yemen. These were mostly illiterate or with lower education. The current centralized structure of the state was the most favorable option for more than half of the illiterate respondents, compared to 16.7% who selected federalism. (See the diagram: Structure of the State and the Level of Education).
Number of Regions:
Those who selected federalism as a favorable structure of the state were asked about the number of regions they prefer. Consequently, 34.4% of them, mostly women, say they favor a federal system of two self-governed regions (North and South). Those who voted for a federal system of five regions stood second with 27%, most of who were men. The rest voted for a federal system of three, four or more than five self-governed regions, while 4.4%, mostly women, said they don’t know. 2.2% refused to answer.
By gender, more than half of women, who favor federalism, said they prefer a federal system of two self-governed regions, compared to one-fourth of men. The findings revealed that 36% of men support a federal system with five self-governed regions.
Of those who support federalism, 85% in the south voted for a federal system of two self-governed regions (North and South), compared to only 8.5% in the North. 39% of respondents in the northern governates voted for a federal system of five self-governed regions while the rest voted for a federal system of four regions or more than five regions.
Hadramout tops the list of governates favoring a federal state of two self-governed regions with 91%, followed by Aden with 82%, and then Dhalea with 75%. On the contrary, Amran tops the list of governates favoring a unitary state with 100%, followed by Ibb with 79%, Taiz with 49%, Dhalea with 47% and Hajjah with 44%. The governates of Ibb, Taiz and Hajjah showed high percentages of people favoring a federal system of five self-governed regions while Hodeida has the highest percentage of people preferring a federal state of more than five self-governed regions.
Methodology
The findings of such a quantifiable study are based on direct [face-to-face] interviews, conducted between October 27 and November 6, 2013, with a total of 1064 interviewees, who were randomly selected from the age group of 18 years and over. Respondents lived in 79 villages/neighborhoods scattered over 72 districts in nine governates.
Based on the total population of Yemen, one could say that the level of trust reaches up to 95%, and the margin of error is ± 2.95.
The entire population was represented in the sample, taking into consideration gender equality, in that half of the respondents were men and the other half women. Up to 68.4% of the interviewees were in rural areas and 31.6% in urban areas. The interviews were distributed to target governates as per their respective population .
The sample followed the random selection methodology throughout all its phases (a random multi-phased/ multi-category sample) as per the official population data from the 2004 census and Yemen’s population projection estimates for the period 2005 – 2025.
The interviews were conducted by men and women interviewers in the field, as per the questionnaire form (measurement tool), which contained a cluster of questions about the topic of the study, in addition to demographic and other sample-related questions.
The tablet devices were used for data collection through the application of PERCENTAB.1, and the data collection phase was directly observed by main supervisors via the Internet through interview samples displayed on the website, and a reviewer might have access to the interviews of one’s respective team through a special account.
All the interviews implemented were reviewed and examined; phone calls were made for verification on 15% of the total interviews in which contact data of target interviewees were provided.
The response rate in the survey was 72.9%, according to AAPOR Standards for surveys implemented through direct (face to face) interviewers. Up to 74.3% of the interviews were completely conducted in first-selection houses, and 25.7% were conducted in substitute houses for many reasons, including refusal to be interviewed or inaccessibility to a first-selection house.
